Nigeria's election results' trend and likely outcome
March 30 2015. By Abi Giwa
Election results declared so far in the Nigeria's presidential and legislative polls by the Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, have shown a trend that it is not difficult to fathom the final results.
Results from the north of the country has Mohammed sweeping the poll in all the states, except Nassarawa, Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Plateau and Kaduna, where the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan has 25 percent of the votes in each of the states.
Clockwise in the South East and South-South, where Jonathan hails from, Buhari has not been able to score 25 percent in any of the states. However both candidates score 25 percent each in the South West states, except Ondo, where Jonathan failed to secure 25 percent, and Ekiti where Buhari had fallen short of 25 percent of total votes.
With results from the southern states like Edo and Rivers State still being expected along other states of Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Bauchi in the north, where the election will swing is not difficult to see.
When all the states in the north where Buhari has gathered 25 percent each of the votes are counted along with his success in the South West and results being expected from the remaining six northern states are considered, the election is way concluded.
It may not be possible that Buhari will not gather 25 percent each of the votes in the remaining northern states where the results are being expected.
Even if Jonathan wins those northern states of Kebbi, Sokoto, Borno, Taraba and Zamfara, Buhari cannot fall short of 25 percent from each of the states considered parts of his stronghold. There is no indication of a run-off unless by a miracle. But since INEC's releases are final, let's wait and see what will happen.
Of course, Jonathan has said if he loses, he will go back to Otuoke. Professor Wole Soyinka had reiterated the same assertion in a news report that if Jonathan loses, he will go back to Otuoke.
What lesson will Nigerian politicians learn from the election outcome? It is that politics is like a game of sports where winners and losers are bound to emerge, and that it must be seen not a life and death issue.
But Jonathan's name will go down in history as one president in Nigeria, who allowed flowering of freedom of speech, robust and often cantankerous challenge from opponents without resorting to arm twisting and trouble of opponents.
Results from the north of the country has Mohammed sweeping the poll in all the states, except Nassarawa, Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Plateau and Kaduna, where the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan has 25 percent of the votes in each of the states.
Clockwise in the South East and South-South, where Jonathan hails from, Buhari has not been able to score 25 percent in any of the states. However both candidates score 25 percent each in the South West states, except Ondo, where Jonathan failed to secure 25 percent, and Ekiti where Buhari had fallen short of 25 percent of total votes.
With results from the southern states like Edo and Rivers State still being expected along other states of Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Bauchi in the north, where the election will swing is not difficult to see.
When all the states in the north where Buhari has gathered 25 percent each of the votes are counted along with his success in the South West and results being expected from the remaining six northern states are considered, the election is way concluded.
It may not be possible that Buhari will not gather 25 percent each of the votes in the remaining northern states where the results are being expected.
Even if Jonathan wins those northern states of Kebbi, Sokoto, Borno, Taraba and Zamfara, Buhari cannot fall short of 25 percent from each of the states considered parts of his stronghold. There is no indication of a run-off unless by a miracle. But since INEC's releases are final, let's wait and see what will happen.
Of course, Jonathan has said if he loses, he will go back to Otuoke. Professor Wole Soyinka had reiterated the same assertion in a news report that if Jonathan loses, he will go back to Otuoke.
What lesson will Nigerian politicians learn from the election outcome? It is that politics is like a game of sports where winners and losers are bound to emerge, and that it must be seen not a life and death issue.
But Jonathan's name will go down in history as one president in Nigeria, who allowed flowering of freedom of speech, robust and often cantankerous challenge from opponents without resorting to arm twisting and trouble of opponents.